End Pavement

Speaking of current conditions, there is reportedly a big honkin’ storm headed toward Southern California late this week.

From the NOAA “Special Weather Statement”:

…STRONG SEPTEMBER STORM POSSIBLE LATE THURSDAY THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY… A STRONG STORM FOR SEPTEMBER MAY MOVE THROUGH SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA LATE THURSDAY THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. THIS STORM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE WEATHER VERY RARELY SEEN IN SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA IN SEPTEMBER. THIS COULD BE THE STRONGEST MID LATITUDE SEPTEMBER STORM FOR SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA IN AROUND 20 YEARS.

From the Press-Enterprise article “Big September storm on horizon”, there’s an added wrinkle.

With forecasters calling for what could be the most powerful September storm in 20 years to arrive late Thursday, firefighters battling the Butler 2 blaze in the Big Bear Lake area could face winds, rain and snow late this week.

Naturally, there’s a Red Flag warning in effect, thanks to the winds ahead of the storm:

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LAS VEGAS HAS ISSUED A RED FLAG WARNING…WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM PDT /11 AM MST/ TO 9 PM PDT /9 PM MST/ WEDNESDAY. THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DROP SOUTH INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA ON WEDNESDAY. INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF THIS LOW WILL BRING SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 35 AND 45 MPH TO MUCH OF THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO BE CLOSE TO OR BELOW 15 PERCENT IN MOST AREAS. STRONG WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL PERSIST INTO THE EVENING HOURS BEFORE CONDITIONS MODERATE AFTER ABOUT 9 PM.

So fasten your seat belts, it’s gonna be a bumpy ride. ;)

Just wanted to point out a new category in the sidebar links: Conditions. Thanks to the Interweb, it’s exceedingly easy to have a gander at what’s going on where you’re headed, thus avoiding potential problems or even danger.

Unless of course you ignore a Flash Flood Watch and get caught in a thunderstorm. But that’s another post.

Here’s what under Conditions at the moment:

• California Fire News
• InciWeb: California
• National Weather Service: Current Watches, Warnings and Advisories for California
• NOAA Pacific Tsunami Warning Center
• San Bernardino National Forest Current Conditions
• USGS: Earthquake Map for California and Nevada
• Weather Underground: California

It skews toward California and SoCal specifically, but heading to some of those sites will produce similar tools for other regions.

http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/lox/Assets/pns_06_01_07.pdf

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
925 AM PDT FRI JUN 1 2007

[...]

IF DOWNTOWN LOS ANGELES RECEIVES 1.20 INCHES OF RAIN OR LESS DURING THE MONTH OF JUNE…THE LAST MONTH OF THE 2006-2007 RAIN SEASON…THIS WILL BECOME THE DRIEST SEASON EVER. CURRENTLY THAT TITLE BELONGS TO THE WINTER OF 2001-2002…WHEN 4.42 INCHES OF RAIN WAS RECORDED. NORMAL SEASONAL RAINFALL AT DOWNTOWN LOS ANGELES IS 15.14 INCHES.

AN ANALYSIS OF RAINFALL AT LOS ANGELES IN JUNE GIVES AN IDEA OF JUST HOW LIKELY IT IS THAT THIS SEASON WILL BECOME THE DRIEST EVER. ON AVERAGE…JUST 0.06 INCHES OF RAIN FALLS IN LOS ANGELES IN THE MONTH OF JUNE. SINCE RECORDS BEGAN IN JULY 1877…129 JUNES HAVE COME AND GONE. RAINFALL TOTALED 1.20 INCHES OR LESS IN EVERY SINGLE JUNE EXCEPT FOR ONE…JUNE 1884…WHEN 1.34 INCHES OF RAIN FELL.

(thanks to Alex for the forward)

An article in the LA Times this past week ups the ante in the story on Southern California’s dry spell (covered previously here on End Pavement): “L.A. urges conserving water in dry spell”

Los Angeles officials urged residents Wednesday to reduce water consumption by 10% as weather forecasters predicted the region’s historic dry spell will combine with a summer of record-setting temperatures.

Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa’s call for conservation — the first water-reduction goal the city has issued in more than a decade — comes as water agencies across Southern California are trying to deal with the driest season on record.

In my post back in March, the Times reported that Downtown had received 2.4 inches of rain since July 1, 2006. Three months later, that total is still less than 4 inches.

Despite things not being as bad as the droughts during the late Eighties when mandatory conservation and other measures were passed,

…this summer is expected to be as hot, if not hotter, than last summer, during which several record-breaking heat waves were blamed for the deaths of more than 100 people across the state.

Mayor Villaraigosa is pushing for voluntary conservation for now.

“Los Angeles needs to change course and conserve water to steer clear of this perfect storm,” Villaraigosa said. “The combination of record-low rainfall, the second-lowest snowpack ever recorded and a potentially very hot summer is a perfect storm that could put Los Angeles into a drought.”

My friend and fellow hiker Alex writes the Ravens in Hollywood blog. He was quite concerned about the wildlife that were threatened in yesterday’s fire, not that far from his house.

He sent me an awesome picture he managed to capture recently (before the fire) that has become his new masthead banner.

(Click to see in context and full size.)

Flickr has a ton of shots of the fire from various folks. Unfortunately, with the apparently even-worsening drought situation, we’ll be seeing a lot more of this kind of thing.

Let’s hope all the wildlife in Hollywood (not to mention the numerous hairless primates) are okay.

Thanks to the Press-Enterprise for pointing out a new exhibit going on now at the San Bernardino County Museum.

[The] new exhibit [...] focuses on the unique geography of inland Southern California that makes the area especially prone to earthquakes, landslides, fires and floods.

Titled “Living on the Edge,” the show explores the scientific reasons for such natural disasters and their relationship to the human population. It details the ways local communities have coped in the past and prepared for the future, and offers pictorial reminders and preparedness hints.

The museum’s website has a full press kit with facts and figures, plus some of the images being displayed.

“Living on the Edge: Natural Disasters in San Bernardino County” runs March 17th to June 24th. I’ll definitely make plans to go see that.

I also want to see how the construction is coming on their new Hall of Geological Wonders, which had the groundbreaking back in February. The illustrations and blueprints look really cool.